How will a Trump Presidential Victory Affect the Housing Market?
On November 8th, 2016 people across the United States voted for the next POTUS. That voting was then followed by anxiously awaiting the outcome and drinking copious amounts of wine/whiskey/whatever was on hand. The morning of November 9th was met with either great joy or great trepidation. Regardless of which candidate you were supporting there are always questions to be answered: “Can he start sooner than January?” (No, he may not) “WHAT JUST HAPPENED?” (Not totally sure, America apparently loves a good surprise) and on a more serious note “How will the new President Elect affect taxes/healthcare/my family/friends/job/environment/housing market?”
Let’s talk about the latter of those concerns, shall we?
First and foremost, if you are looking for advice on how to handle the potential changes in the housing market that a Trump presidency will bring it’s best to look to The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy and “DON’T PANIC”! Concerns about the future of the housing market are understandable for everyone involved, regardless if you are a buyer, seller, agent, investor or developer and there are several points to consider:
- Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist with Trulia.com, said the Trump effect on housing could be different across the nation.
“The shock of a Trump victory will be both a boon and drag on the confidence of American home buyers” McLaughlin writes in a statement. “Home buyers in economically healthy blue states will likely be rattled and more hesitant about the future of the U.S. economy, which will curb their interest in making large investments. In economically stagnant red states, on the other hand, home buyers will likely feel a surge of confidence that could bolster demand.”
- Trump built much of his campaign around him being a businessman not a politician or Washington insider. While the housing market was not at the forefront of this election as in 2008, those in the industry are expecting/hoping to see some stimulus and relief in the form of reducing the intense regulations currently placed on real estate and development.
- If his business acumen is the positive then it can be said that his views on immigration is the negative or at least the questionable in regards to the housing market. Trump’s immigration policies could certainly affect construction labor, interest rates, trade policy, as well logistics and the industrial sector. If that is the case the biggest market to take a hit will most likely be the overseas luxury home buyers, as can already be seen in the Miami market.
- Ultimately what does this mean for the DFW area? For starters, the election took place at the beginning of the real estate industry’s slow season so as of right now there hasn’t been much of a shift different from what we’re used to seeing. Jack Crews in the Dallas office of commercial real estate firm, JLL summed it up best “Dallas real estate is in good shape, provides good yields and very low risk to anything Trump may want to implement in his first year in office.”
Truth of the matter, experts and amateurs alike can speculate on what will happen but there isn’t another presidential election like this to be able to compare. What happens the first 100 days of the Trump presidency will be what sets the tone for the future. Until then stay positive, don’t get too caught up in forecasting the future, build on what you have and DON’T PANIC.